Model
Model
Signal Composition
Explains how weighted signals and modifiers combine into final allocation behavior.
The model combines three primary signals with modifier terms to produce a daily dynamic multiplier.
Primary Signals
| Signal | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV Value Signal | 70% | Lower valuation tends to increase allocation |
| MA Signal | 20% | Price below trend tends to increase allocation |
| 4-Year Percentile | 10% | Cycle context adjustment |
Signal Modifiers
| Modifier | Effect |
|---|---|
| Acceleration | Boost/reduce based on momentum shifts |
| Confidence | Increases effect when indicators align |
| Volatility Dampening | Reduces exposure in unstable regimes |
Final Weight Calculation
For each day, a dynamic factor is applied to a uniform base allocation, then normalized across the window to ensure sums remain 1.0.
Worked Example
Assume a baseline allocation of $100 and the following signal realization:
- Weighted base signal score:
1.20 - Confidence modifier:
+0.10 - Volatility dampening:
-0.05
Net dynamic multiplier: 1.20 + 0.10 - 0.05 = 1.25
Resulting daily allocation: $100 * 1.25 = $125
For term definitions, see Glossary and Signal Interpretation.